Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 7.350391 8.450577 9.638606 11.014262 12.560625 14.242434 16.207205
2026-02-08 5.655082 7.120153 8.828617 10.957587 13.528121 16.519600 20.251617
2026-02-15 4.745924 6.340767 8.295350 10.847555 14.070326 17.980895 23.058602
2026-02-22 4.124356 5.811554 7.972916 10.913661 14.774729 19.631452 26.156504
2026-03-01 3.739310 5.515594 7.878729 11.207812 15.723796 21.576406 29.663247
2026-03-08 3.265944 5.035934 7.478106 11.034830 16.011172 22.643839 32.051724
2026-03-15 2.781292 4.479336 6.906977 10.557980 15.819914 23.022833 33.495534
2026-03-22 2.590478 4.329340 6.891207 10.849415 16.696750 24.879671 37.021927
2026-03-29 2.403066 4.161680 6.828279 11.055296 17.447052 26.579095 40.389714
2026-04-05 2.170536 3.896988 6.591840 10.974687 17.757565 27.648969 42.890350
2026-04-12 1.954413 3.635430 6.334777 10.835664 17.958769 28.552407 45.169791
2026-04-19 1.790573 3.444042 6.170886 10.824735 18.344582 29.733173 47.893306
2026-04-26 1.657241 3.295465 6.069400 10.913304 18.900952 31.213628 51.162164
2026-05-03 1.508128 3.103522 5.878986 10.839963 19.190801 32.294538 53.866383
2026-05-10 1.371109 2.918432 5.682567 10.736871 19.416131 33.270898 56.431300
2026-05-17 1.273923 2.798245 5.589085 10.800320 19.914237 34.692577 59.743600
2026-05-24 1.218428 2.753375 5.626409 11.092507 20.808820 36.783934 64.198567
2026-05-31 1.105336 2.581007 5.414102 10.920849 20.892153 37.546116 66.525157
2026-06-07 0.966749 2.340510 5.052494 10.448450 20.417279 37.352134 67.263449
2026-06-14 0.930201 2.312851 5.098780 10.737185 21.306909 39.484309 71.937793
2026-06-21 0.886641 2.265272 5.101398 10.941196 22.050305 41.392028 76.298156
2026-06-28 0.817099 2.152040 4.962573 10.861319 22.265827 42.392553 79.146782
2026-07-05 0.748147 2.032450 4.800607 10.723569 22.362802 43.184048 81.657115